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Iran Policy Focus

The nuclear deal with Tehran?

Iran Nuclear images

There are reports and so much fanfare that today or tomorrow an agreement might be reached between the Iranian regime and 5+1. From what has appeared in the media Presidents Obama has already decided to make new concessions only to promote a failed approach with Tehran.

The WSJ report yesterday about secret negotiations with the mullahs and The Daily Beast revelation today that since long ago USG had started to ease sanction on Tehran, signal a dangerous and misguided policy

According to reliable sources Khamenei has authorized the negotiators to make as much conciliatory remarks as they want but the regime’s red lines must be strictly observed. Indeed the relines have been hardened. Accordingly, Tehran will not agree to completely halt enrichment let alone scraping its capability. No sign of reducing the number centrifuges. It will not be required to be transparent on its previous work and any other undeclared nuclear sites in any tangible manner. The regime will not also agree to shipment of all enriched uranium to outside Iran. And would not sign the additional protocol for snap inspection. The regime is of the view that anything short of these would be in their favor since it does not effectively prevent them from obtaining the bomb.

 

 

The temporary suspension, will have no effect on the regime’s nuclear weapons program while it will be the first step of loosening the sanction which can never be brought back again so easily. The regime’s foreign minister has already made it clear that "There won't be a suspension of our enrichment program in its entirety."

There is an effort by some in the West to present this deal, if it is reached, as if sanction remains tough and it could easily be reinstated again if Tehran reneged. The reality is that such a deal is a one way concession to the regime and if sanction is relaxed without regime stop its enrichment and becoming transparent about its two decades of deception on this issue, the world is going to lose greatly. This deal could get the regime off the hook without compel it to completely halt enrichment let alone abandon its nuclear weapons program. The anticipated deal is a recipe for a looming disaster.

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